Brazil has made significant strides in education and poverty reduction in recent decades, yet a closer examination reveals a complex narrative of intergenerational mobility. While educational achievements have improved substantially, the progress in reducing poverty—both relative and absolute—has been uneven across different age groups. Let’s delve into three key charts that paint a detailed picture of these dynamics, comparing and contrasting the experiences of four broad age cohorts: children (0-14), youth (15-23), working age (24-65), and the elderly (65 and above).
1. Education: A Key Driver of Upward Mobility
The first chart highlights the average years of schooling across various age-period cohorts in Brazil. Education is a critical positive indicator, and more years of schooling generally correlate with better socioeconomic outcomes and opportunities.
Key Findings by Age Group:
Children (0-14 years): While this group is not directly represented in the chart, we can infer positive trends from the educational attainment of slightly older cohorts. For example, the average years of schooling for the 15-17 age group increased from 4.4 years in 1981 to 7.8 years in 2023. This suggests that today’s children are likely receiving more consistent and higher-quality education, laying a strong foundation for future opportunities.
Youth (15-23 years): The youth cohort has seen substantial educational gains. For instance, the average years of schooling for those aged 18-20 rose from 5.6 years in 1981 to 9.2 years in 2023, while those aged 21-23 increased from 5.7 years to 10.1 years over the same period. These improvements reflect enhanced access to education and suggest a stronger potential for upward mobility as these individuals enter the workforce.
Working Age (24-65 years): This cohort also shows significant educational progress. For example, individuals aged 30-32 increased their average years of schooling from 5.4 years in 1981 to 10.2 years in 2023. Even among older segments, like those aged 60-62, there has been an increase from 2.6 years to 6.3 years. These gains highlight expanded educational opportunities that are critical for economic advancement.
Elderly (65 and above): The elderly group, however, shows the least improvement in education levels. Those aged 65-66 had only 2.3 years of schooling in 1981, which increased to 6.7 years by 2023. The lower educational attainment among this cohort reflects historical barriers to education and likely contributes to their economic vulnerabilities.
2. Relative Poverty: Persistent Challenges for Many
The second chart shows the proportion of each age group that falls into the bottom 40% of the income distribution over time—a measure of relative poverty. This is a negative indicator, where higher percentages represent greater economic inequality and limited social mobility.
Key Findings:
Children (0-14 years): Data for youth cohorts can provide insights. The relative poverty rate for the 15-17 age group is around 25% in 2023. This suggests that a significant portion of children may also be living in economic hardship, which could constrain their future opportunities despite gains in education.
Youth (15-23 years): For this group, relative poverty rates have decreased over time but remain significant. For instance, the rate for those aged 18-20 dropped from 40% in 1981 to 19% in 2023, and for the 21-23 age group, it decreased from 31% to 23%. While these improvements are notable, the continued high rates indicate that economic gains are not being evenly experienced.
Working Age (24-65 years): The working-age cohort shows mixed results in relative poverty reduction. For example, the rate for those aged 30-32 fell from 30% in 1981 to 16% in 2023. However, for older segments like those aged 60-62, the rate remains higher at 22%. This suggests that while younger working-age individuals are seeing more improvement, older individuals in this cohort still face economic challenges.
Elderly (65 and above): Relative poverty rates remain high for the elderly. For instance, those aged 65-66 had a relative poverty rate of 31% in 1981, which reduced only to 16% by 2023. These figures highlight persistent economic vulnerabilities among older adults, likely stemming from lower educational levels and fewer economic opportunities earlier in life.
3. Absolute Poverty: Unequal Progress in Economic Conditions
The third chart illustrates absolute poverty rates, defined by a specific poverty line (e.g., $6.85 USD/PPP per day). This is another negative indicator where lower values represent better outcomes.
Key Findings:
Children (0-14 years): Trends for youth cohorts can provide insights. For the 15-17 age group in 2023, the absolute poverty rate is only 6%, down from 65% in 1981. This substantial reduction suggests significant improvements in economic conditions for younger cohorts, possibly due to better access to education and targeted social programs.
Youth (15-23 years): This cohort has experienced substantial reductions in absolute poverty. For example, the 18-20 age group saw a decrease from 65% in 1981 to 6% in 2023. This dramatic decline reflects improved economic conditions and opportunities for upward mobility, likely supported by educational gains and youth employment initiatives.
Working Age (24-65 years): The working-age group also shows significant progress. The absolute poverty rate for those aged 30-32 dropped from 52% in 1981 to 8% in 2023. However, for older segments within this group, such as those aged 60-62, the rate remains at 11%. This suggests that while economic conditions have improved overall, some subgroups face ongoing challenges.
Elderly (65 and above): The elderly cohort continues to face higher absolute poverty rates, with slower declines compared to younger cohorts. For instance, the rate for those aged 65-66 was 53% in 1981 and only reduced to 11% by 2023. This slow reduction highlights persistent economic vulnerabilities for older adults, underscoring the need for more comprehensive social safety nets and economic support.
Key Takeaways: The Complex Story of Intergenerational Mobility in Brazil
The data from these three charts provide a nuanced view of intergenerational mobility in Brazil:
Education Gains Across Generations: Across all age groups, educational attainment has improved, especially among youth and working-age individuals. This is a promising sign for future economic mobility, as higher education is generally associated with better economic opportunities.
Persistent Relative Poverty: Despite educational improvements, relative poverty remains a significant challenge, particularly for the elderly and some working-age segments. This suggests that while educational gains are important, they do not automatically translate into economic gains, highlighting the need for targeted economic policies.
Declining Absolute Poverty with Uneven Progress: There has been a notable decline in absolute poverty, particularly among younger cohorts, reflecting improved living conditions. However, older cohorts, especially the elderly, still face significant economic challenges. This underscores the importance of addressing economic disparities to ensure that all age groups can benefit from social and economic progress.
Conclusion: Bridging the Gaps for Greater Mobility
While Brazil has made substantial progress in education and poverty reduction, the data shows that these gains are not evenly distributed across all age groups. To foster more equitable intergenerational mobility, it is crucial to continue investing in education while also implementing targeted policies to reduce economic inequalities, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable segments of the working-age population. By addressing these challenges, Brazil can build a more inclusive and prosperous future for all its citizens.
João Pedro Azevedo is the Chief Statistician at UNICEF and an expert in analyzing social and economic trends to inform public policy. He is passionate about leveraging data to promote equitable growth and development.